Report Compiled: 2020-05-08

Johns Hopkins Repo Commit: 9fbca1d Max Data Date: 2020-05-07

NYT Repo Commit: 621fb65 Max Data Date: 2020-05-07

This is an automatically generated report containing analyses of the COVID-19 epidemic in Iowa and elsewhere. All models under consideration here are stochastic SEIR compartmental models, fit using Approximate Bayesian Computation using the ABSEIR software for R. Source code available upon request. Questions should be directed to grant-brown@uiowa.edu

There are two general classes of model:

  1. Models which use a single location of mortality data to estimate the epidemic curves
  2. Models which are used to provide informative prior information about the epidemic in Iowa, based on analyses of other locations.

In both cases, we have to make assumptions about the shape of the underlying contact distributions. Namely, can we assume that contact in each location shifted within one week of governmental action, or is the shape of the curve more complex. With that in mind, we look at both types of models. In addition, for the State of Iowa, we consider whether or not it is most reasonable to assume that intervention efforts began on 3-17-2020 or 4-4-2020, which correspond to the emergency declaration and the official closing of schools.

** A huge array of models are presented in this document, and they are not reviewed by our team of experts before posting to this page. Some of these are guaranteed to be inadequate or misleading if interpreted by themselves. These results should be considered raw material for follow-up reporting, investigation, and decision-making.**

R0 Summaries: Single Location Analyses

Mortality Estimates: Single Location Analyses

Here, we present the compared results of analyses of the COVID-19 outbreak in a number of locations. We begin by comparing the estimated posterior distribution of mortality rates in each location.

Model Fit: Single Location Analyses

In the following tabbed sections, we present diverse output from the single location models, including projections over time of the following important quantities:

Illinois

Washington

Minnesota

Iowa (3-17)

Iowa (4-4)

Illinois (Spline Model)

Washington (Spline Model)

Minnesota (Spline Model)

Iowa (3-17, Spline Model)

Iowa (4-4, Spline Model)

Iowa Specific Projections

In the following sections, we apply the estimated intervention intensity from the previous analyses to the situation in Iowa, with the hope that by borrowing information from other locations we can improve the precision of our projections.

Iowa Analysis Based on: Illinois - Intervention Term Applied 2020-03-17

[1] “Done with R0sim” [1] “Done with R0sim”

Iowa Analysis Based on: Illinois - Intervention Term Applied 2020-04-4

[1] “Done with R0sim” [1] “Done with R0sim”

Iowa Analysis Based on: Washington - Intervention Term Applied 2020-03-17

[1] “Done with R0sim” [1] “Done with R0sim”

Iowa Analysis Based on: Washington - Intervention Term Applied 2020-04-4

[1] “Done with R0sim” [1] “Done with R0sim”

Iowa Analysis Based on: Minnesota - Intervention Term Applied 2020-03-17

[1] “Done with R0sim” [1] “Done with R0sim”

Iowa Analysis Based on: Minnesota - Intervention Term Applied 2020-04-4

[1] “Done with R0sim” [1] “Done with R0sim”

Iowa Analysis Based on: Illinois - Intervention Term Applied 2020-03-17

[1] “Done with R0sim” [1] “Done with R0sim”

Iowa Analysis Based on: Illinois - Intervention Term Applied 2020-04-4

[1] “Done with R0sim” [1] “Done with R0sim”

Iowa Analysis Based on: Washington - Intervention Term Applied 2020-03-17

[1] “Done with R0sim” [1] “Done with R0sim”

Iowa Analysis Based on: Washington - Intervention Term Applied 2020-04-4

[1] “Done with R0sim” [1] “Done with R0sim”

Iowa Analysis Based on: Minnesota - Intervention Term Applied 2020-03-17

[1] “Done with R0sim” [1] “Done with R0sim”

Iowa Analysis Based on: Minnesota - Intervention Term Applied 2020-04-4

[1] “Done with R0sim” [1] “Done with R0sim”

Table of projected mortality by model/assumption

Mortality As Of: Training Location Intervention Date Model Type 10th Percentile 50th Percentile 90th Percentile
2020-06-18 Illinois 04-04-2020 Shift 598.1348 932.2661 1726.4301
2020-06-18 Illinois 04-04-2020 Spline 518.8393 911.1975 1756.8146
2020-06-18 Illinois 03-17-2020 Shift 1096.3136 1807.4020 3116.4766
2020-06-18 Illinois 03-17-2020 Spline 662.4920 1221.6997 3062.8524
2020-06-18 Iowa 04-04-2020 Shift 498.0346 1626.4592 3709.3713
2020-06-18 Iowa 04-04-2020 Spline 543.3093 1654.5366 6119.8653
2020-06-18 Iowa 03-17-2020 Shift 1039.0615 2106.0323 3310.6719
2020-06-18 Iowa 03-17-2020 Spline 725.5750 1707.4626 4367.2982
2020-06-18 Minnesota 04-04-2020 Shift 405.7260 676.9291 1105.0842
2020-06-18 Minnesota 04-04-2020 Spline 618.6421 1112.8908 2324.6538
2020-06-18 Minnesota 03-17-2020 Shift 946.2649 1565.2465 2842.2696
2020-06-18 Minnesota 03-17-2020 Spline 953.1826 1897.8920 4380.9483
2020-06-18 Washington 04-04-2020 Shift 354.4201 512.3989 828.6091
2020-06-18 Washington 04-04-2020 Spline 418.4456 571.2186 871.2840
2020-06-18 Washington 03-17-2020 Shift 752.1235 1278.7985 2315.8956
2020-06-18 Washington 03-17-2020 Spline 525.3756 1183.7711 3692.0285
2020-05-22 Iowa 04-04-2020 Shift 320.6002 442.5183 602.0736
2020-05-22 Iowa 04-04-2020 Spline 354.7680 456.4692 660.0543
2020-05-22 Iowa 03-17-2020 Shift 364.1489 485.1383 637.4609
2020-05-22 Iowa 03-17-2020 Spline 341.8834 455.4174 628.6975